Navigating the Nuclear Balance: The US—China’s Evolving Strategic Posture
The evolving nuclear dynamics between the United States and China are reshaping global strategic stability, ushering in a new era of nuclear multipolarity. This policy brief examines China's rapid nuclear modernization under President Xi Jinping and the corresponding countermeasures undertaken by the United States. It explores China's shift from a minimum deterrence posture to a 'lean and effective' nuclear strategy, raising concerns about the credibility of its No First Use (NFU) policy. The brief also evaluates U.S. responses, including the adjustments in nuclear deterrence posture under the Trump and Biden administrations. Finally, it discusses the prospects of bilateral arms control negotiations and the broader implications of the growing nuclear rivalry. To prevent strategic miscalculations and escalation, the report underscores the need for sustained diplomatic engagement and confidence-building measures between the two nuclear-armed states.
AUKUS and Australia's Strategic Dilemma: Deterrence, Diplomacy, and Regional Stability in the Indo-Pacific
Australia's engagement in the Indo-Pacific has taken a significant turn with the formation of AUKUS, a trilateral security partnership with the US and the UK. The agreement, which involves Australia acquiring nuclear-powered submarines, represents a strategic response to growing regional instability, particularly amid China’s assertiveness. This paper explores the motivations behind AUKUS, its strategic and economic implications, and the varied reactions from regional partners. While AUKUS enhances Australia's defense posture and deepens military cooperation with allies, concerns persist regarding its potential to trigger an arms race. The document also examines the interplay between AUKUS and the QUAD, as well as the possibility of expanding the partnership to include additional Indo-Pacific nations. While AUKUS is designed to bolster regional stability, its success depends on careful diplomacy and sustained multilateral engagement.
The Taiwan Dilemma: Sovereignty, Security, and Strategic Ambiguity
This report argues that Taiwan should aim to avoid violent reunification, and secondly also to avoid peaceful reunification with China. Firstly, Taiwanese policymakers should uphold their policy of de facto independence by refraining from a formal declaration of independence, avoiding risking triggering a Chinese military invasion. Secondly, Taiwan should bolster its defensive capabilities by bolstering its military deterrence, particularly focusing on decentralised ‘porcupine’ defense strategies that acknowledge Chinese military superiority. Thirdly, Taiwan should strengthen its alliances, particularly because of the newfound isolationist and transactional approach of United States (US) Republican administrations. Fourthly, Taiwan should foster national unity and internal cohesion to reduce domestic susceptibility to Chinese attempts to influence Taiwanese public and political opinion towards reunification. Fifthly, Taiwan should lessen its economic reliance on China by expanding its economic ties with allies and enhancing its strategic autonomy and vulnerability to Chinese economic coercion. Finally, Taiwan should further emphasise and increase its economic, political and security value to the US, particularly under an isolationist and transactional Republican party.
The current tensions in Taiwan-China relations, where China seeks reunification with Taiwan and Taiwan opposes this, are rooted in historical, political and ideological factors. Understanding the objectives of both sides and the implications of possible scenarios is crucial to assessing future cross-strait relations. Global geopolitical dynamics are affected significantly by these tensions, and the international community's role will play a key role in future outcomes.
Several recent developments in cross-strait relations have contributed to the increasingly tense relationship between Taiwan and China and the possibility of reunification. Firstly, the US breaking of their ‘strategic ambiguity’ policy under the Biden administration has angered China, with uncertainty surrounding the policy of future US administrations, particularly under the Republican Party. Secondly, the re-election of the Democratic Progressive Party, continuing the status quo policy of de facto independence has angered China. Thirdly, China has increased its military and diplomatic attacks on Taiwan.
Leveraging Indigenous Knowledge for Climate Change Adaptation in the Indo-Pacific Region
This policy brief explores the critical role of Indigenous Knowledge (IK) in addressing climate change adaptation within the Indo-Pacific region, a zone particularly vulnerable to the impacts of rising sea levels, severe weather events, droughts, and shifting agricultural practices. While global awareness of climate change has grown, current adaptation strategies often marginalize Indigenous Knowledge, despite its proven effectiveness in managing environmental risks and enhancing climate resilience. In drawing on real-world examples from across the region, this article demonstrates how IK, rooted in centuries of environmental adaptation, offers innovative solutions for sustainable resource management, biodiversity conservation, and climate resilience. The policy brief further provides practical recommendations for integrating IK into local and global adaptation frameworks, advocating for a holistic approach that bridges traditional knowledge and contemporary scientific practices to address the challenges of climate change.
Shifting Currents: China's Rise in the Indian Ocean Region and India's Policy Response
The Indian Ocean Region (IOR), a vital maritime corridor connecting Asia, Africa, and Europe, has emerged as a contested geopolitical hotspot due to its strategic trade routes, critical resources, and key chokepoints like the Malacca and Hormuz Straits. This paper, Shifting Currents: China's Rise in the Indian Ocean Region and India's Policy Response, examines China's increasing influence in the IOR through its strategic initiatives, including the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), military modernization, and infrastructure investments. It also explores India's multifaceted response, focusing on its "Net Security Provider" role, naval modernization, and diplomatic strategies like the "Necklace of Diamonds." The paper highlights the dynamic geopolitical landscape shaped by competing interests and strategies, underscoring the critical importance of the IOR in shaping the 21st-century global order. Through a detailed analysis of Chinese expansionism and India's counterstrategies, the study offers insights into the evolving power dynamics in one of the world's most significant maritime regions.
Energizing BIMSTEC through Indian Leadership: Opportunities, Challenges, and the Way Forward.
This policy brief, Energizing BIMSTEC through Indian Leadership: Opportunities, Challenges, and the Way Forward, explores India’s critical role in revitalizing the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC). As South Asia navigates rising geopolitical tensions, including China’s expanding influence through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), BIMSTEC’s strategic importance has grown. However, BIMSTEC faces structural and financial limitations, hindering its progress toward meaningful regional integration. India, as a key contributor, seeks to leverage its Neighborhood Policy and Act East Policy to enhance BIMSTEC’s relevance and counterbalance external influences. Proposed reforms include streamlining goals, strengthening financial support, and fostering collaborations with other regional bodies like ASEAN. With consistent leadership and commitment from member states, BIMSTEC has the potential to drive sustainable growth, regional stability, and collective security in South Asia. This brief highlights pathways for India and BIMSTEC to create a resilient regional future.
The People’s Liberation Army - Organizational Tradeoffs and Foundational Influences: Insights for Taiwan
This Policy Brief delves into the complexities and misconceptions about China's People's Liberation Army (PLA). It challenges assumptions about PLA's competence and self-awareness, highlighting its historical evolution, ideological trade-offs, and challenges in modernizing amid loyalty-versus-capability issues. The PLA’s "Active Defense" and "People’s War" strategies underpin a military shaped by ideological and pragmatic compromises. As the PLA strives for modernization by 2049, understanding its nuanced structure, objectives, and limitations is essential for accurate threat assessments.
Strengthening Maritime Domain Awareness in the Indo-Pacific: Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain and Awareness
The Indo-Pacific's maritime security landscape is increasingly complex, and Captain James JB Park’s latest paper, "Maritime Security and Strategy of the Indo-Pacific: Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain and Awareness (IPMDA)," provides a timely, strategic analysis of these dynamics. As a 2024 James A. Kelly Korea Studies Fellow and contributor at the Indo-Pacific Studies Center, Captain Park explores key issues impacting maritime security.
Taiwan's New Leader Faces China: A Powder Keg in the Pacific?
Policy Brief by Hugh S Tuckfield, PhD
Navigating the complex geopolitical landscape of the Indo-Pacific requires a nuanced understanding of the fragmented governance within Taiwan, the cautious maneuvering by Beijing, and President-elect Lai Ching-te's resolve against a possible Chinese invasion. The fragmented political system in Taiwan following the 2024 election has significant implications for domestic governance as well as interactions with China and the international community. President-elect Lai Ching-te's ability to navigate this landscape is crucial to shaping Taiwan's response to external pressures and maintaining stability in the region. While fragmented governance may pose challenges such as coalition governance, policy deadlocks, and potential political instability, it also presents opportunities for compromise and moderation. This eclectic or synthetic approach allows for a comprehensive analysis of the motivations, actions, and interactions of the actors involved in cross-strait relations, emphasizing the importance of understanding the complex dynamics and diverse perspectives on the Taiwan issue.