Taiwan’s Diplomatic Allies in the Pacific: Navigating China’s Growing Influence
Taiwan’s contested sovereignty has long been a defining challenge in its global standing. With a rise in China’s economic incentives and development aid in the Pacific, Taiwan has had to adopt alternative strategies to maintain its global presence. Of the twelve sovereign states with which Taiwan maintains official diplomatic relations, three—Tuvalu, Palau, and the Marshall Islands—are island states in Oceania. While Taiwan’s Pacific allies are few, they play a crucial role in advocating for Taiwan on the global stage.
Shifting Diplomatic Landscape
At the start of 2019, Taiwan and China both held diplomatic relations with six nations in the Pacific. By the end of 2019, both the Solomon Islands and Kiribati switched their recognition to PRC, just days apart from each other. In 2024, Nauru followed suit, severing diplomatic ties with Taiwan in favor of formally recognizing the PRC. Though Nauru had previously shifted allegiance between Taipei and Beijing—recognizing the Republic of China in 2002 and switching back to Taiwan in 2005—its 2024 decision came as a significant blow to both Taipei and its remaining diplomatic partners. In addition to recognizing the One-China principle, Nauru explicitly opposed Taiwan’s independence and supported “all efforts by the Chinese government to realize national unification.” Despite Taiwan’s long history of navigating fluctuating diplomatic recognition, the loss of Nauru, a country with which Taiwan shared longstanding cultural and economic ties, further demonstrated China’s ability to poach Taiwan’s diplomatic allies with economic incentives.
The Importance of Multilateral Forums: PIF
As China increases its involvement in multilateral forums, it is imperative for Taiwan to leverage its allies to advocate for its interests and bolster its international presence. The Pacific Islands Forum (PIF), is a multilateral platform which has gained significant geopolitical importance in recent years, particularly due to China’s growing influence in the region. The 53rd PIF summit, held in Tonga in 2024, was not without controversy, with China and the Solomon Islands—a former official ally of Taiwan— attempting to block Taiwan’s attendance and successfully pushing for the removal of a reference to Taiwan in the summit’s communique. Unlike China, who serves as a “dialogue partner” for PIF, Taiwan is classified at a lower level as a “development partner,” under the name “Taiwan/Republic of China.” Initially, the communique posted online included direct reference to Taiwan and its status as a development partner.
However, following aggressive pushback from Qian Bo, China’s special envoy from the Pacific, the Communique was republished online with all mentions of Taiwan removed.
If 2024’s PIF is any indication of Taiwan’s standing, its participation remains precarious. Especially as the 2025 summit is set to take place in the Solomon Islands, making it even more important for Taiwan’s diplomatic partners to remain steadfast in advocating for its inclusion.
President Lai’s Initiatives
In December of 2024, President Lai Ching-te embarked on a Pacific tour, where he made official visits to the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and Palau, along with stopovers in Hawaii and Guam.
During his visits to The Marshall Islands and Palau, he emphasized shared democratic values and the critical role that these allies play in resisting authoritarianism in the Indo-Pacific. He also highlighted their shared Austronesian culture—a diplomatic tactic that Tsai Ing-wen previously employed during her presidency to strengthen ties with Taiwan’s Pacific allies. While his bilateral visits with the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and Palau appeared positive and mutually beneficial, his stopovers in Hawaii and Guam provoked an angry response from Beijing who urged the United States to exercise “utmost caution” in its relations with Taiwan.
Key Takeaway
Taiwan’s continued partnership with its Pacific allies—through bilateral state visits, multilateral participation, and other cultural and educational initiatives—remains crucial to ensure its position in the Indo-Pacific.