Is the U.S. losing the Pacific to China? The impact of Congressional delays on funding approvals.

Palau’s President, Surangel Whipps, Jr.

Leaders of strategic U.S.-allied Pacific Island nations are concerned about the delay in approving vital funding packages by the U.S. Congress due to a budget impasse.

China is attempting to capitalize on this delay to sway the allegiance of these nations. The funding, known as the Compacts of Free Association, enjoys bipartisan support but has not been approved yet.

The Biden administration is pushing for Congress to expedite the approval process to prevent potential economic exploitation by China.

Strategic U.S.-allied Pacific Island nations, specifically the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), the Marshall Islands (RMI), and Palau, are experiencing increased anxiety due to the delay in the U.S. Congress's approval of the new funding packages under the Compacts of Free Association.

These nations have warned that the delay is allowing China to actively seek to shift their allegiances, including over Taiwan. The delay has generated uncertainty among the populations of these nations and has resulted in opportunities for economic exploitation by competitive political actors in the Pacific, particularly China.

The leaders of these nations have expressed concern that the delay could undermine confidence in the U.S. and encourage some to accept Chinese economic inducements to shift diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to Beijing.

China is actively seeking to shift the allegiances of strategic U.S.-allied Pacific Island nations, including over Taiwan, by taking advantage of the U.S. congressional budget impasse that has delayed the approval of vital new funding packages under the Compacts of Free Association.

The delay in funding has created undesirable opportunities for economic exploitation by China, as indicated by the leaders of the Federated States of Micronesia, the Marshall Islands, and Palau in their communications to U.S. congressional leaders. Specifically, Palau's president warned that the delay played into the hands of China and politicians in Palau who wanted to accept Chinese economic inducements to shift the island nation's diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to Beijing.

Similarly, Marshall Islands President Hilda Heine highlighted "carrot and stick" efforts from the People's Republic of China (PRC) aimed at shifting alliances, including discontinuing support for Taiwan. These actions by China are seen as attempts to undermine confidence in the U.S. and encourage some Pacific Island nations to agree to PRC enticements.

The Biden administration has been actively urging Congress to approve the funding for the Compacts of Free Association as soon as possible. The administration has stressed the strategic importance of these agreements, which provide the U.S. with exclusive military access to significant swaths of the Pacific that are also of interest to China.

The delay in funding approval is seen as creating opportunities for China to exploit, potentially shifting the allegiances of these Pacific Island nations. The State Department spokesperson reiterated the call on Congress to pass COFA-related legislation promptly, highlighting the urgency of the matter.

Mira Rapp-Hooper, the White House's senior director for East Asia, emphasized at the U.S. Institute of Peace think tank that funding the COFAs is a top strategic priority for the year, stating, "It just simply must be done".

This response underscores the administration's concern over China's efforts to influence these nations and the critical need to maintain strong ties and confidence among the U.S. allies in the Pacific.

Illustration: Chen Xia/GT: US promises to Pacific islands could be simply ‘pie in the sky’ : By Global Times

China has argued that if the US fails to deliver on its promises of aid to counter China's influence in the Pacific Island countries, (PICs) several potential consequences could arise:

• Diminished Influence and Credibility: The US might see a significant reduction in its influence and credibility among PICs. The repeated failure to follow through on aid promises could lead to skepticism about the sincerity and reliability of US commitments in the region. This skepticism could weaken the US's strategic position and diplomatic relationships in the Pacific, making it more challenging to engage effectively with these countries in the future.

• Strengthened China-PICs Relations: The absence of promised US aid could drive PICs closer to China, which has been actively engaging with these countries through economic aid, investment projects, and infrastructure development under initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative. As China's assistance and investments in the region have already yielded fruitful results and improved local economic development, the gap left by unfulfilled US promises could be readily filled by China, further solidifying its influence and presence in the region.

• Regional Instability: The US's failure to deliver promised aid could contribute to regional instability. PICs, which are in need of economic assistance and development support, might face increased challenges in achieving social stability and economic development. This could exacerbate existing vulnerabilities, including those related to climate change, economic resilience, and health security, potentially destabilizing the region further.

• Geopolitical Shifts: The US's inability to counter China's growing influence effectively could lead to significant geopolitical shifts in the Pacific. With China's influence becoming more entrenched, the strategic balance in the region could tilt further in favor of China. This shift could have broader implications for international relations, affecting not just the Pacific but also other regions where the US and China are vying for influence.

Are these consequences or predictions likely or merely propoganda?

The consequences outlined, such as diminished US influence and credibility, strengthened China-PICs relations, regional instability, and significant geopolitical shifts, are based on observable trends and strategic analyses. The failure of the US to fulfill its aid promises could logically lead to these outcomes, considering the strategic importance of the PICs and the ongoing competition for influence between the US and China in the region. The skepticism towards the US's commitment, as highlighted by the delay in funding despite previous agreements , supports the argument that such consequences are plausible.

While China offers a critique of the US's actions and intentions in the Pacific, backed by specific examples of unfulfilled promises, they also highlight the tangible benefits of China's engagement in the region. The positive portrayal of China's role and the criticism of the US could be seen as an effort to shape perceptions favorably towards China's activities and intentions in the PICs. This indicates that, while the consequences discussed are likely, China’s presentation of information may also serve propagandistic purposes.

China played an obvious role when Nauru switched diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China less than 48 hours after Taiwan’s presidential election in January.

The competition between China and the US in the Pacific is "on,” and its fierce.