Unveiling Air Dominance: China’s Sixth-Generation Aircraft and the Indo-Pacific Balance

JH-XX and a photo of J-20 for comparison / Open-source photos

On December 26th, 2024, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) unveiled two new stealth jet aircraft in a public test presentation. The  Shenyang J-50 and what is suspected to be the Chengdu J-36 are said to be groundbreaking sixth-generation aircraft, with the former being a more traditional fighter design and the latter a heavier fighter-bomber, bringing to mind US military intelligence reports of a possible Chinese tactical bomber program.

This article will discuss the significance of these two aircraft tests, situating this event in the context of previous PLA Air Force test flights and the current progress of the US military’s sixth-generation fighter programs.

One particular aspect of these test flights rendered the dual reveal of the newer generation aircraft unique in the history of the PRC’s military aircraft fielding pipeline. The fifth-generation predecessor to the J-50 and the J-36, J-20, had its maiden flight in 2011. However, the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) revealed that information along with a projected enter-service date as early as 2009. Also consider the more recent November 2024 reveal of the J-35, highly anticipated ever since the FC-31 prototype for it was made public at the 2014 Zhuhai Air Show.

However, with regards to the newly revealed sixth-generation aircraft, there had only been one satellite image of what was speculated to be a tailless fighter similar to the J-50 in 2021 and no previous information on the J-36 other than the aforementioned reporting from the Defense Intelligence Agency.

Based on the timeline of previous aircraft, it is possible that both the J-50 and the J-36 will not be fielded by the PLAAF until 2030. So saying, the significance of these two airframes lies not in their potential for production and operation in the very near future.

Instead, the sudden reveal of the two aircraft, which took place on Mao Zedong’s birthday, sparked discussion and celebration among the Chinese netizens, particularly centering around the sentiment of “Throwing the label of backwardness across the Pacific." Therefore, the two test flights can be construed as an intentional attempt from the Chinese Communist Party to reveal the aircraft without official announcement.

These new jets were shown to the Chinese public for the first time through a low-speed, low-altitude flyover across a populated area in broad daylight. Such an act would enable the promotion of a sentiment of perceived overmatch against the United States’ capabilities on social media, targeting the whole of Chinese society and promoting national pride beyond the typical audience of military enthusiasts.

The revelation that the PRC has created not one but two potential sixth-generation aircraft has indeed raised concerns that the United States military is falling behind in the race for technological innovation.

The PRC’s aircraft designs appear to accomplish the aspirations and aims of the US Next Generation Air Dominance program as it pertains to crewed aircraft. The NGAD concept revolves around a crewed stealth fighter aircraft, known as the Penetrating Counter-Air platform, which serves as a central node for airpower, supported by uncrewed collaborative combat aircraft.

Essentially, a crewed fighter will have drone wingmen flying alongside it to carry additional armaments/fuel to extend the range of operations or to perform combat mission sets. 

Such capabilities would enable aircraft to move undetected and project airpower much farther than before, critical in a theater of operations like the Indo-Pacific where anti-access and area denial strategies are the norm and vast stretches of ocean impose constraints on effective range. While the NGAD started as a joint Navy and Air Force initiative, the two services wound up diverging programs and offices. 

While the United States Air Force did test a prototype 6th generation fighter in 2020, fears that the US is falling behind the PRC in aircraft production stem from the fact that progress on the NGAD program since 2020 remains uncertain.

Moreover, in July 2024, US Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall announced that the Air Force would be reevaluating the feasibility and worth of the NGAD program, noting the prohibitive cost of hundreds of millions of dollars per aircraft if the Air Force was to proceed.

Initially, the Air Force was supposed to communicate a decision by the end of 2024, but following the reelection of President Trump, the Air Force stated that the final decision on the NGAD program would be deferred to the Trump administration.

It is worth noting, however, that prominent Trump advisors Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy have expressed their dislike for constructing more crewed fighters and emphasized unmanned systems, potentially putting the fighter component of the NGAD in jeopardy. 

The Air Force’s reservations notwithstanding, the Navy’s NGAD fighter program, known as the F/A-XX, is slated to continue moving through development.  As of 2023, the Navy’s potential 6th generation fighter entered design maturation, and the Navy started fielding bids for contracts from companies. The fighter is supposed to enter the engineering and manufacturing design phase by the end of the fiscal year 2025. 

While the public reveal of two new jet aircraft by the People’s Republic of China and the manner in which they are revealed is unprecedented, it should not be taken as an indication of a major disruption in the race for technological innovation. Prototype tests are a far cry from actual production and fielding of airframes.

The peculiar nature of these reveals, however, may nonetheless be cause for concern as a means to stoke nationalism within the PRC, in an increasingly tense time as the PRC seeks to normalize military operations in the Taiwan Strait. Public support for the PLA is a necessary foundation for any military action, whether it take the form of military exercises or a kinetic invasion of Taiwan.

In any case, these test flights will cause the United States, with its allies and partners, to feel the pressure of the PLA’s military modernization, unsure if the PRC remains a “pacing threat” or has become something far more formidable. 

The views expressed in this article are the authors’ own and do not reflect the official position of the United States Military Academy, Department of the Army, or Department of Defense.

Brandon Tran is a Non-Resident Fellow of the Indo-Pacific Studies Center and an international affairs and Chinese double major at the United States Military Academy at West Point. He works on China and Indo-Pacific security issues and has published extensively on these topics. He hopes to commission as a military intelligence officer.

Eric Liu is a Knight-Hennessy Scholar pursuing a M.A. degree in East Asian Studies with a regional focus on China at the Stanford School of Humanities and Sciences. Eric earned a Bachelor of Science degree from the United States Military Academy in Chinese and Systems and Decision Sciences. Following Stanford, he will serve as an infantry officer in the United States Army.