Japan’s Potential Role in Southeast Asia’s Nuclear Energy Transformation

Southeast Asia’s Imminent Nuclear Energy Transformation

As geopolitical conflict continues to strain global trade of fossil fuels, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) forecasts an unprecedented increase in worldwide nuclear power production by 2050.[1] Of the nearly 30 countries currently considering or developing new nuclear energy programs, the majority of facilities planned or under construction are located in Asia.[2] Seeking to fuel their rapidly developing economies with sustainable, low-carbon power, many Southeast Asian countries, including the Philippines, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, Indonesia, Laos, and Myanmar are soon expected to develop their first civil nuclear energy programs.[3]

The Geopolitics of Nuclear Energy

International regulatory organizations like the IAEA and Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) work to implement international legal frameworks to safeguard[4] against the illicit proliferation or misuse of nuclear material and technologies that are inherently sensitive, or dual-use, (having the potential to be used in both peaceful energy production and the manufacture of nuclear weapons). Emerging nuclear energy countries often pursue international partnerships with technology and fuel suppliers who also assist national regulatory agencies in establishing physical security protocols and legal safeguards. However, due to the growing demand for nuclear energy, experts are concerned that nuclear partnerships and exports have increasingly become instrumental in the geopolitical ambitions of countries like Russia and China which currently dominate the global market.[5] This has reportedly resulted in political gridlock, division, and distrust among the NSG that risks contributing to the deterioration of nuclear security conditions globally.[6]

Japan’s Potential as a Nuclear Energy Development Partner and Promoter of Safeguards in Southeast Asia

Due to a timely convergence of national interests, Japan could present the emerging nuclear energy countries of Southeast Asia with a strong alternative to other suppliers. Japan reportedly ranks as the most trusted regional power among Southeast Asian nations, significantly surpassing both the United States and China, owing to decades of close economic cooperation and Japanese investment in regional development.[7] Japanese nuclear industry is among the most technologically developed in the world,[8] and Japan’s established economic relationship with Southeast Asia provides a strong position from which to build nuclear energy development partnerships in the region. Japan also has a vested interest in the development and security of Southeast Asia according to its 2022 National Security Strategy, which emphasized the strategic importance of strengthening diplomatic and economic relations with Pacific nations and providing capacity-building support for developing countries.[9] As a supporter of international nuclear safeguards and security norms, Japan has also historically maintained close relations with the IAEA, most recently evidenced by its transparency and cooperation with the agency during the discharge of treated wastewater from the decommissioned Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant.[10] With the support of Japanese and Southeast Asian policymakers, Japan has the potential to establish itself as a trusted partner among the emerging nuclear energy countries of Southeast Asia, and by leveraging its historical support for safeguards and nonproliferation norms, may be strongly positioned as a regional promoter of nuclear security.

William Marshall is a doctoral candidate at the University of Osaka’s School of International Public Policy and former research associate at the Stimson Center.

[1] “IAEA Annual Projections Rise Again as Countries Turn to Nuclear for Energy Security and Climate Action,” International Atomic Energy Agency, 9 October 2023, Vienna, Austria, https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/iaea-annual-projections-rise-again-as-countries-turn-to-nuclear-for-energy-security-and-climate-action.

[2] “Plans For New Reactors Worldwide,” World Nuclear Association, 30 April 2024, https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-and-future-generation/plans-for-new-reactors-worldwide.

[3] “Emerging Nuclear Energy Countries,” World Nuclear Association, 26 April 2024, https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/others/emerging-nuclear-energy-countries.

[4] Safeguards Implementation Practices Guide on Establishing and Maintaining State Safeguards Infrastructure, International Atomic Energy Agency, July 2018, Vienna, Austria, https://www.iaea.org/publications/10868/safeguards-implementation-practices-guide-on-establishing-and-maintaining-state-safeguards-infrastructure.

[5] Cohen, A. “China and Russia Now Dominate the Global Nuclear Trade,” Forbes, 7 June 2024, https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2024/06/07/china-and-russia-now-dominate-the-global-nuclear-trade/.

[6] Hibbs, M. “A More Geopoliticized Nuclear Suppliers Group,” Strategic Trade Review, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 14 December 2017, https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2017/12/a-more-geopoliticized-nuclear-suppliers-group?lang=en.

[7] “The State of Southeast Asia 2024 Survey Report,” ASEAN Studies Centre at ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute, 2 April 2024, Singapore, pg. 5, https://www.iseas.edu.sg/centres/asean-studies-centre/state-of-southeast-asia-survey/the-state-of-southeast-asia-2024-survey-report/.

[8] “Nuclear Power in Japan,” World Nuclear Association, 31 July 2024, https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-g-n/japan-nuclear-power.

[9] National Security Strategy of Japan (Provisional translation as of December 2022), Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, 16 December 2022, pgs. 31-32, https://www.mofa.go.jp/fp/nsp/page1we_000081.html.

[10] “Japan’s Discharge of ALPS Treated Water in Line with International Safety Standards, New IAEA Task Force Report Confirms,” International Atomic Energy Agency, 30 January 2024, Vienna, Austria, https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/japans-discharge-of-alps-treated-water-in-line-with-international-safety-standards-new-iaea-task-force-report-confirms.