Sino-American relations are increasingly defined by strategic rivalry. Taiwan remains a flashpoint, with military tensions escalating after the 2022 Pelosi visit. Economic decoupling continues, as the U.S. restricts Chinese technology access and China retaliates with export controls. Military competition intensifies through AUKUS and the QUAD, while China strengthens ties with Russia. The global order is increasingly polarized, with both powers vying for influence. With limited prospects for cooperation, their choices will shape global security, trade, and governance. Managing this rivalry responsibly is critical to preventing escalation and ensuring long-term stability.

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The evolving nuclear dynamics between the United States and China are reshaping global strategic stability, ushering in a new era of nuclear multipolarity. This policy brief examines China's rapid nuclear modernization under President Xi Jinping and the corresponding countermeasures undertaken by the United States. It explores China's shift from a minimum deterrence posture to a 'lean and effective' nuclear strategy, raising concerns about the credibility of its No First Use (NFU) policy. The brief also evaluates U.S. responses, including the adjustments in nuclear deterrence posture under the Trump and Biden administrations. Finally, it discusses the prospects of bilateral arms control negotiations and the broader implications of the growing nuclear rivalry. To prevent strategic miscalculations and escalation, the report underscores the need for sustained diplomatic engagement and confidence-building measures between the two nuclear-armed states.

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