The cancellation of this week's planned summit of Quad leaders from Australia, the United States, Japan and India will have a negligible impact on the future of the Quad. This is because the four countries share a common vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific region and have demonstrated their commitment to cooperate on various issues such as maritime security, counter-terrorism, climate change, and vaccine diplomacy.

The summit was supposed to be held in Sydney on May 24, but was called off after US President Joe Biden decided to stay in Washington to deal with the debt ceiling crisis that threatens to trigger a default on US government obligations. Biden had already cancelled his visits to Papua New Guinea and Australia, where he was expected to address a joint sitting of Parliament and meet with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.

However, the Quad leaders are still expected to meet on the side-lines of the G7 summit in Hiroshima this weekend, where they will discuss ways to enhance their strategic partnership and coordinate their responses to regional and global challenges. The Quad was revived in 2017 after a decade-long hiatus and has since held three ministerial meetings and one virtual summit in March this year. The Quad leaders have also pledged to provide up to one billion doses of Covid-19 vaccines to countries in Southeast Asia and the Pacific by the end of 2022.

Some analysts have argued that Biden's cancellation is a setback for the Quad and a win for China, which views the grouping as a threat to its interests and influence in the region. They contend that Biden's absence will undermine the credibility and commitment of the US to its allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific and will give China an opportunity to exploit the perceived rifts and weaknesses within the Quad.

However, this view is too pessimistic and ignores the broader context and dynamics of the Quad. First, Biden's cancellation was not due to any lack of interest or enthusiasm for the Quad, but rather a result of domestic political constraints that were beyond his control. Biden has repeatedly affirmed his support for the Quad and his vision for a rules-based international order in the Indo-Pacific. He has also taken concrete steps to strengthen US engagement and leadership in the region, such as launching the AUKUS security pact with Australia and the UK, hosting an Indo-Pacific Business Forum, and appointing a senior official as coordinator for Indo-Pacific affairs.

Secondly, the Quad is not a formal alliance or a military bloc that requires constant coordination and consultation among its members. Rather, it is a flexible and pragmatic platform that allows for dialogue and cooperation on issues of mutual interest and concern. The Quad does not have a secretariat or a charter, nor does it impose any obligations or commitments on its members. The Quad operates based on consensus and voluntarism, respecting the sovereignty and diversity of its members. Therefore, the cancellation of one summit does not mean that the Quad is falling apart or losing momentum.

Thirdly, the Quad is not an exclusive or antagonistic grouping that seeks to contain or confront China. The Quad does not aim to create a new Cold War or divide the region into camps. The Quad acknowledges that China is an important player in the region and welcomes constructive engagement with Beijing on issues of common interest. The Quad also supports ASEAN centrality and inclusiveness in shaping the regional architecture. The Quad does not seek to replace or undermine existing mechanisms or institutions, but rather to complement and reinforce them.

The cancellation of the Sydney summit does not diminish the importance or relevance of the Quad, nor does it signal a lack of US engagement or leadership in the Indo-Pacific. Rather, it reflects the reality of domestic politics and priorities that sometimes interfere with international diplomacy. The Quad remains a flexible and informal mechanism that allows its members to collaborate on areas of mutual interest and benefit, without being constrained by rigid structures or obligations. The Quad also respects the sovereignty and autonomy of each country and does not seek to contain or antagonize any other nation. The cancellation of this week's planned summit of Quad leaders will have a negligible impact on the future of the Quad.

The Quad remains a relevant and resilient forum that will continue to pursue its objectives and agenda in accordance with its principles and values. The Quad will also adapt and adjust to changing circumstances and challenges in the region. The Quad is not a one-off event or a photo opportunity, but a long-term process and a strategic partnership.