Prime Minister Anthony Albanese met Pacific Leaders at the 52nd Pacific Islands Forum from 7–9 November in Cook Islands. At the forum, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced that Australia would provide $350 million in climate infrastructure for the region, including $75 million for a program for off-grid and community-scale renewable energy in remote and rural parts of the Pacific.

Albanese also announced that Australia would contribute to the new Pacific Resilience Facility (PRF), a Pacific-built trust fund that will be established to invest in small-scale climate and disaster-resilience projects.

Australia will also make a contribution to the Green Climate Fund (GCF), the most prominent global climate finance fund, and will be active in advocating to prioritize GCF financing for the Pacific.

In addition to climate change, security was also a major topic of discussion at the forum. Albanese announced that Australia would provide assistance to Tuvalu in response to a major natural disaster, health pandemics, and military aggression.

Australia and Tuvalu also signed a new bilateral agreement, the Australia-Tuvalu Falepili Union, which covers cooperation on climate change, human mobility, and security. The agreement includes a special mobility pathway that will allow Tuvaluans to come to Australia to live, work, and study. There will be an initial cap of 280 Tuvaluans eligible per year.

Tuvalu is extremely vulnerable to the impact of climate change, especially rising sea levels, and is trying to preserve its culture, traditions, and land.

Analysis

The Pacific Islands Forum is an important regional forum for discussing the challenges facing the Pacific region, including climate change and security. Australia's announcement of new funding for climate change and security in the Pacific is a welcome development. The Pacific region is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, and it is important that Australia plays a leading role in supporting its Pacific partners to adapt and build resilience. The Australia-Tuvalu Falepili Union is a significant new bilateral agreement that will deepen cooperation between the two countries on a range of issues, including climate change, human mobility, and security. The special mobility pathway for Tuvaluans is a particularly important initiative, as it will provide Tuvaluans with a pathway to migrate to Australia if their homeland becomes uninhabitable due to climate change. The Pacific Islands Forum is an important opportunity for Australia to reaffirm its commitment to the Pacific region and to work with its Pacific partners to address the shared challenges facing the region.

Is it possible that Australia's new bilateral agreement with Tuvalu, the Australia-Tuvalu Falepili Union, is part of a broader strategy to keep China out of the Pacific?

China has been increasing its engagement in the Pacific, and Australia, as well as nearly all states in the Indo-Pacific, are concerned about China's growing influence in the region. Australia has srong and long-held strategic and cultural ties with the Pacific and does not want China to engage in coercion contrary to Australia and its neighbors.

The Australia-Tuvalu Falepili Union includes a security component, which commits Australia to providing assistance to Tuvalu in response to major natural disasters, health pandemics, and military aggression. This security guarantee is likely to be seen as a warning to China that Australia is willing to use force to defend its interests in the Pacific.

The special mobility pathway, albeit relatively small in number with an initial cap of 280 Tuvaluans eligible per year, is a way to counter China’s influence in the Pacific. However, it is important to note that Australia is not the only country that is concerned about China's growing influence in the Pacific. Other countries, such as the United States and New Zealand, are also taking steps to counter China's influence in the region.

Ultimately, it is up to the Pacific island countries to decide which partners they want to work with. Australia should focus on building strong relationships with its Pacific partners and supporting their development needs. If Australia does this, it will be in a good position to expand its influence in the Pacific.